Can Predicting Politics Predict the Stock Market?

by Jason Unger

As I mentioned, I’ve been enjoying writing on Quora, especially when it comes to personal finance, investing, and index funds.

While I normally don’t weigh in on politics or get too involved in political discussions, a Quora question caught my eye: Will the stock market crash on November 8?

Obviously, this question focused on the 2016 Presidential Election, and the impact of either President Hillary Clinton or President Donald Trump on the stock market.

Here’s a sampling of the answers …

It will crash if Trump wins. It will not be much affected if Hillary wins.

Next week, Markets will be very volatile as expected.. but I dont think there will be a big crash. May be some sharp down move but I dont call it a crash.. It should be a good opportunity to buy good companies in sectors like pharma, agri and consumer driven businesses.. Just stay away from IT till there is more clarity from the new US President.

May be..may be not. But, the real question is “Should I be worried about it”? Yes..if I am planning to sell all shares in my portfolio on 8th Nov.

Should I be looking forward to it? Yes..If I see this as an opportunity to build my portfolio based on BUY LOW & SELL HIGH strategy.

We can expect a relief correction, once the results are out. Fingers crossed for a Hillary Win!.

Obviously, these aren’t really high-quality answers, but they are all written with the assumption that you can predict what will happen.

Guess what folks? You can’t.

I wrote my response to the question on June 8, 2017, exactly 6 months after the election.

Here’s a sampling:

It’s hilarious to read these answers.

No one got it right.

No one at all.

You have a couple of really long answers that try to explain what will happen to the economy and the stock market should either presidential candidate win. You have a couple of nonsensical answers saying “it depends.”

Mostly, the answers tended to think that the stock market would be great if Hillary Clinton won, and crash if Donald Trump won.

As we know, Trump won — which surprised a lot of people.

Initially, Dow Futures fell about 900 points (!) when it became clear Trump was going to win … but that changed dramatically once everyone got over the shock of him winning.

On November 8, 2016, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was at 18,332.

Today, June 8, 2017, the Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at 21,182.

That’s a 16% increase in 8 months.

Since November 8, the Dow Jones hit 19,000, 20,000, and 21,000 all for the first time.

So what does this mean?

Read the whole answer, and upvote if you like.

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